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Impact of climate change on the water regime of streams in southeastern Brazil

Period: 2016 - current

Coordinator: Silvio Frosini de Barros Ferraz

Members: Plinio Barbosa de Camargo / Marisa de Cassia Picolo / Ricardo de Oliveira Figueiredo / Humberto Ribeiro da Rocha / Aline Frabsozi

Financing: FAPESP - Financial aid

The purpose of this study is to use the hydrological model of Fu (1981) based on the hypothesis of Budyko (Budyko, 1948, 1974) to relate climate change and the impact on the flow of streams from different locations in Southeast Brazil. The hypothesis of this work is that this model can be validated with local data from the southeastern region of Brazil, allowing the identification of critical factors for the stability of water production in hydrographic basins and the prediction of the behavior of the water balance in conditions of alteration of the land use and climate change. Additionally, the quality of surface water will be studied, since changes in the hydrobiogeochemistry of the basins resulting from inadequate management practices are aggravating factors in the deterioration of this quality and can limit the use of water resources. The objectives of this study are: (i) to calibrate and validate the Fu model with climate and flow data from existing microbasins in Southeast Brazil; (ii) Simulate future climate scenarios and calculate the impacts of global warming on the hydrological regime of watersheds in Southeast Brazil; (iii) Carry out a regional mapping, characterizing and establishing hydrological indicators of responsiveness to management in hydrographic basins; (iv) improve the Fu model, inserting biological variables, such as the leaf area of vegetation around the watersheds, to make it more sensitive to short-scale simulations for small and medium watersheds, and (v) Complement the diagnosis of responsiveness to management in watersheds through hydrobiogeochemical assessment, including analysis of dissolved and particulate material transported by permanent and intermittent watercourses.

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